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One of the few things that does seem clear is that Britain is paying for its bad habits. Brussels needs more cash this year to cope with overspent budgets. The EU applies its complex calculation of how much member states should pay into its coffers largely on GDP levels.
The bigger the national income, the bigger the contribution. So far, so simple. Other countries have been affected too after the EU calculated how much of their hidden economies should be brought on the books.
Greece faces a larger contribution despite losing a fifth of is national income since More importantly, Britain is paying more because this year it is simply bigger than 18 months ago while other countries have stood still or contracted. The EU budget is calculated on a rolling monthly basis. It has been revised seven times this year.
Go back a couple of years and the UK contribution fell substantially. By the autumn of last year Britain was outstripping all the leading eurozone countries.
By this spring it was trouncing the US. But the stagnation in GDP growth across the EU could continue for many years before any improvement stabilises the funding balance. And if the UK outstrips France and Germany on improving the public finances, then higher contributions will be made without the tax receipts to pay for them.